Qualcomm's SoC Road Map for 2014, 2015

The table in the article below documents Qualcomm direction in response to Apple 64 bit processor (see in September 2013 iPhone 5s Teardown ).

"Today Qualcomm is rounding out its 64-bit family with the Snapdragon 808 and 810. Like the previous 64-bit announcements (Snapdragon 410, 610 and 615), the 808 and 810 leverage ARM's own CPU IP in lieu of a Qualcomm designed microarchitecture. We'll finally hear about Qualcomm's own custom 64-bit architecture later this year, but it's clear that all 64-bit Snapdragon SoCs shipping in 2014 (and early 2015) will use ARM CPU IP."

A key issue for Qualcomm is "Qualcomm's sharing the roadmap to its premium Snapdragon chipset lineup much earlier than it usually does; the 810 and 808 won't be available on devices until the first half of 2015. This is largely due to competitive pressure: MediaTek, Intel and NVIDIA are going big by pushing out chips with 64-bit support and, in some cases, eight cores. Given how fast the industry is iterating, it's not hard to see that Qualcomm -- which currently dominates much of the mobile chipset market -- doesn't want to lose momentum or popularity." Qualcomm's 2015 chips may make you regret getting a new phone this year

See more from September 2013 on iPhone 5s Teardown ,

and from July 2013 Smartphone: MediaTek Overtaking Qulacomm

While Qualcomm grew 31% last year, Media Tek already grew 36% semiconductor vendors ranking - Top Semiconductor Ranking for 2013

Ron

Insightful, timely, and accurate semiconductor consulting.
Semiconductor information and news at - http://www.maltiel-consulting.com/

Qualcomm'sSnapdragon 808/810: 20nm High-End 64-bit SoCs with LTE Category 6/7 Support in2015

by Anand Lal Shimpi on April 7, 2014

Today Qualcomm is rounding out its 64-bit family with the Snapdragon 808 and 810. Like the previous 64-bit announcements (Snapdragon 410, 610 and 615), the 808 and 810 leverage ARM's own CPU IP in lieu of a Qualcomm designed microarchitecture. We'll finally hear about Qualcomm's own custom 64-bit architecture later this year, but it's clear that all 64-bit Snapdragon SoCs shipping in 2014 (and early 2015) will use ARM CPU IP.

While the 410, 610 and 615 all use ARM Cortex A53 cores (simply varying the number of cores and operating frequency), the 808 and 810 move to a big.LITTLE design with a combination of Cortex A53s and Cortex A57s. The latter is an evolution of the Cortex A15, offering anywhere from a 25 - 55% increase in IPC over the A15. The substantial increase in performance comes at around a 20% increase in power consumption at 28nm. Thankfully both the Snapdragon 808 and 810 will be built at 20nm, which should help offset some of the power increase.

Qualcomm's 64-bit Lineup
	Snapdragon 810	Snapdragon 808	Snapdragon 615	Snapdragon 610	Snapdragon 410
Internal Model Number	MSM8994	MSM8992	MSM8936	MSM8939	MSM8916
Manufacturing Process	20nm	20nm	28nm LP	28nm LP	28nm LP
CPU	4 x ARM Cortex A57 + 4 x ARM Cortex A53 (big.LITTLE)	2 x ARM Cortex A57 + 4 x ARM Cortex A53 (big.LITTLE)	8 x ARM Cortex A53	4 x ARM Cortex A53	4 x ARM Cortex A53
ISA	32/64-bit ARMv8-A	32/64-bit ARMv8-A	32/64-bit ARMv8-A	32/64-bit ARMv8-A	32/64-bit ARMv8-A
GPU	Adreno 430	Adreno 418	Adreno 405	Adreno 405	Adreno 306
H.265 Decode	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No
H.265 Encode	Yes	No	No	No	No
Memory Interface	2 x 32-bit LPDDR4-1600	2 x 32-bit LPDDR3-933	2 x 32-bit LPDDR3-800	2 x 32-bit LPDDR3-800	2 x 32-bit LPDDR2/3-533
Integrated Modem	9x35 core, LTE Category 6/7, DC-HSPA+, DS-DA	9x35 core, LTE Category 6/7, DC-HSPA+, DS-DA	9x25 core, LTE Category 4, DC-HSPA+, DS-DA	9x25 core, LTE Category 4, DC-HSPA+, DS-DA	9x25 core, LTE Category 4, DC-HSPA+, DS-DA
Integrated WiFi	-	-	Qualcomm VIVE 802.11ac 1-stream	Qualcomm VIVE 802.11ac 1-stream	Qualcomm VIVE 802.11ac 1-stream
eMMC Interface	5.0	5.0	4.5	4.5	4.5
Camera ISP	14-bit dual-ISP	12-bit dual-ISP	?	?	?
Shipping in Devices	1H 2015	1H 2015	Q4 2014	Q4 2014	Q3 2014

The Snapdragon 808 features four Cortex A53s and two Cortex A57s, while the 810 moves to four of each. In both cases all six/eight cores can be active at once (Global Task Scheduling). The designs are divided into two discrete CPU clusters (one for the A53s and one for the A57s). Within a cluster all of the cores have to operate at the same frequency (a change from previous Snapdragon designs), but each cluster can operate at a different frequency (which makes sense given the different frequency targets for these two core types). Qualcomm isn't talking about cache sizes at this point, but I'm guessing we won't see anything as cool/exotic as a large shared cache between the two clusters. Although these are vanilla ARM designs, Qualcomm will be using its own optimized cells and libraries, which may translate into better power/performance compared to a truly off-the-shelf design.

The CPU is only one piece of the puzzle as the rest of the parts of these SoCs get upgraded as well. The Snapdragon 808 will use an Adreno 418 GPU, while the 810 gets an Adreno 430. I have no idea what either of those actually means in terms of architecture unfortunately (Qualcomm remains the sole tier 1 SoC vendor to refuse to publicly disclose meaningful architectural details about its GPUs). In terms of graphics performance, the Adreno 418 is apparently 20% faster than the Adreno 330, and the Adreno 430 is 30% faster than the Adreno 420 (100% faster in GPGPU performance). Note that the Adreno 420 itself is something like 40% faster than Adreno 330, which would make Adreno 430 over 80% faster than the Adreno 330 we have in Snapdragon 800/801 today.

Also on the video side: both SoCs boast dedicated HEVC/H.265 decode hardware. Only the Snapdragon 810 has a hardware HEVC encoder however. The 810 can support up to two 4Kx2K displays (1 x 60Hz + 1 x 30Hz), while the 808 supports a maximum primary display resolution of 2560 x 1600.

The 808/810 also feature upgraded ISPs, although once again details are limited. The 810 gets an upgraded 14-bit dual-ISP design, while the 808 (and below?) still use a 12-bit ISP. Qualcomm claims up to 1.2GPixels/s of throughput, putting ISP clock at 600MHz and offering a 20% increase in ISP throughput compared to the Snapdragon 805.

The Snapdragon 808 features a 64-bit wide LPDDR3-933 interface (1866MHz data rate, 15GB/s memory bandwidth). The 810 on the other hand features a 64-bit wide LPDDR4-1600 interface (3200MHz data rate, 25.6GB/s memory bandwidth). The difference in memory interface prevents the 808 and 810 from being pin-compatible. Despite the similarities otherwise, the 808 and 810 are two distinct pieces of silicon - the 808 isn't a harvested 810.

Both SoCs have a MDM9x35 derived LTE Category 6/7 modem. The SoCs feature essentially the same modem core as a 9x35 discrete modem, but with one exception: Qualcomm enabled support for 3 carrier aggregation LTE (up from 2). The discrete 9x35 modem implementation can aggregate up to two 20MHz LTE carriers in order to reach Cat 6 LTE's 300Mbps peak download rate. The 808/810, on the other hand, can combine up to three 20MHz LTE carriers (although you'll likely see 3x CA used with narrower channels, e.g. 20MHz + 5MHz + 5MHz or 20MHz + 10MHz + 10MHz).

Enabling 3x LTE CA requires two RF transceiver front ends: Qualcomm's WTR3925 and WTR3905. The WTR3925 is a single chip, 2x CA RF transceiver and you need the WTR3905 to add support for combining another carrier. Category 7 LTE is also supported by the hardware (100Mbps uplink), however due to operator readiness Qualcomm will be promoting the design primarily as category 6.

There's no integrated WiFi in either SoC. Qualcomm expects anyone implementing one of these designs to want to opt for a 2-stream, discrete solution such as the QCA6174.

Qualcomm refers to both designs as "multi-billion transistor" chips. I really hope we'll get to the point of actual disclosure of things like die sizes and transistor counts sooner rather than later (the die shot above is inaccurate).

The Snapdragon 808 is going to arrive as a successor to the 800/801, while the 810 sits above it in the stack (with a cost structure similar to the 805). We'll see some "advanced packaging" used in these designs. Both will be available in a PoP configuration, supporting up to 4GB of RAM in a stack. Based on everything above, it's safe to say that these designs are going to be a substantial upgrade over what Qualcomm offers today.

Unlike the rest of the 64-bit Snapdragon family, the 808 and 810 likely won't show up in devices until the first half of 2015 (410 devices will arrive in Q3 2014, while 610/615 will hit in Q4). The 810 will come first (and show up roughly two quarters after the Snapdragon 805, which will show up two quarters after the recently released 801). The 808 will follow shortly thereafter. This likely means we won't see Qualcomm's own 64-bit CPU microarchitecture show up in products until the second half of next year.

With the Snapdragon 808 and 810, Qualcomm rounds out almost all of its 64-bit lineup. The sole exception is the 200 series, but my guess is the pressure to move to 64-bit isn't quite as high down there.

What's interesting to me is just how quickly Qualcomm has shifted from not having any 64-bit silicon on its roadmap to a nearly complete product stack. Qualcomm appeared to stumble a bit after Apple's unexpected 64-bit Cyclone announcement last fall. Leaked roadmaps pointed to a 32-bit only future in 2014 prior to the introduction of Apple's A7. By the end of 2013 however, Qualcomm had quickly added its first 64-bit ARMv8 based SoC to the roadmap (Snapdragon 410). Now here we are, just over six months since the release of iPhone 5s and Qualcomm's 64-bit product stack seems complete. It'll still be roughly a year before all of these products are shipping, but if this was indeed an unexpected detour I really think the big story is just how quickly Qualcomm can move.

I don't know of any other silicon player that can move and ship this quickly. Whatever efficiencies and discipline Qualcomm has internally, I feel like that's the bigger threat to competing SoC vendors, not the modem IP.

TSMC 28 nm Process Reverse Engineering

Chipworks has produced an interesting report with some good TEM crossections of the most advanced products of Nvidia, Altera, Xilinx, Qualcomm and others fabricated on TSMC 28nm process.


"The 28 nm generation was the first time TSMC used high-k metal gate (HKMG) transistors. The HP and HPL technologies feature HKMG transistors, while the LP uses conventional poly gates, with an ONO gate dielectric."



Ron
Insightful, timely, and accurate semiconductor consulting.
Semiconductor information and news at - http://www.maltiel-consulting.com/

Japan Fading in Semiconductor Fabrication?

The article below discusses the fab materials market in Japan and states that Japan is maintaining its global position. I don't believe that Japan will be able to maintain its share.

The cause is the rising cost of new process technology. One of the casualties of the $10 Billion cost of developing new semiconductor technologies is Japan's semiconductor industry as is detailed in the March 2012 comment Are Japan's Fabs stuck above 28nm Process Technology?







Ron
http://www.maltiel-consulting.com/




Japan's semiconductor industry: Fabs, equipment, and materials


by Dan Tracy, senior director, SEMI Industry Research and Statistics

October 3, 2012 - Semiconductor manufacturers in Japan are either consolidating or closing fabs, and, in several cases, transitioning to a "fab-lite" strategy, all in a restructuring effort to meet the market challenges ahead. While device manufacturers are consolidating manufacturing operations and plan to outsource more wafer fabrication and package assembly to foundries and packaging subcontractors, a large installed fab capacity remains in Japan. Recent data for the year shows overall wafer area shipments into Japan's fabs being the same as shipments into Taiwan.

By 2014, the total installed fab capacity Japan should increase slightly from about 4.5 million to 4.6 million 200mm equivalent wafers per month. Installed 300mm fab capacity is expected to increase from about 760,000 to 840,000 300mm wafers per month -- representing, by region, the third largest 300mm fab manufacturing capacity base globally. Over the next several years, fab spending in the Japan market will be directed towards the production of NAND flash memory, power semiconductors, high-brightness LEDs, and CMOS image sensors.

Regional share forecasted for 2013 fab materials market. Total market size: $25.7 billion.

Overall equipment spending in Japan will likely range on the order of $4 billion per year. Expected NAND flash investments in 2013 could approach up to $2.5 billion. LED fab equipment spending is estimated to be $340 million next year. Finally, Sony is expected to invest about US$ 1 billion or more in its CMOS image sensor production.

Japanese equipment and material suppliers are leading players on the global semiconductor industry stage. It is estimated that Japan-headquartered equipment companies collectively capture about 35% share of the global semiconductor industry spending per annum. Like their North American and European counterparts, customers in the rest of the Asia Pacific region are the largest base for new equipment sales.

Chemical and other material suppliers in Japan are market leaders in the manufacturing of silicon wafers, III-V wafers, advanced chemicals, packaging resins, and packaging substrates. It is estimated that the Japanese material suppliers sales represent about 70% of the global semiconductor materials market, both fab and packaging.

Japanese suppliers showcase the latest products at SEMICON Japan 2012

Leading Japanese equipment and materials suppliers will exhibit at SEMICON Japan 2012 on December 5- 7, along with global key players, at the Makuhari Messe, Japan. Find the latest products and innovations this companies offer to customers globally that enable key technologies for the future including 450mm, EUV, TSV, power devices, and HB-LEDs to name a few. Also, the show will co-locate with a major photovoltaic show, PVJapan 2012 so you can connect to two major microelectronics industries in a single visit.

Semiconductor Foundries:Strong Q2, but Slowdown..

The article below discusses foundries' strong Q2  results, while predicting a slower Q3.

"Pure-play foundry semiconductor manufacturers enjoyed a robust second quarter thanks to enthusiastic consumer purchasing of wireless products like mobile handsets and tablets, but the industry is slowing down in the second half of 2012 as economic tremors roil the supply chain"

However, I wonder about the impact of the slow ramp-up of manufacturing wafers using the 28nm manufacturing process in Q2 and Q3. There is pent up demand for wafers built using the 28nm process which could impact Q4 (see April 2012 comments Qualcomm and Nvidia 28 nm Wafers? Shortage... and March 2012 comments Nvidia: TSMC 20nm Essentially Worthless). The lack of 28nm wafers negatively impacted Qulacomm, Nvidia and other companies.

Another potential upside for the second half of 2012 is the introduction of window 8 and its impact on demand for tablet computers.

Ron
http://www.maltiel-consulting.com/





Semiconductor Foundries Enjoyed Strong Q2, but Slowdown Looms


Global economic uncertainties and a wary buying public will dampen prospects until mid-next year

Len Jelinek October 2, 2012
Pure-play foundry semiconductor manufacturers enjoyed a robust second quarter thanks to enthusiastic consumer purchasing of wireless products like mobile handsets and tablets, but the industry is slowing down in the second half of 2012 as economic tremors roil the supply chain, according to an IHS iSuppli Semiconductor Manufacturing & Supply market tracker report from information and analytics provider IHS.

Revenue for pure-play foundry suppliers—companies whose entire business involves producing semiconductors for other firms—reached $7.8 billion in the second quarter, up 16 percent from $6.7 billion in the first quarter.

The second-quarter expansion will prove to be the strongest this year, as forecasts show a slowdown occurring during the next two quarters. Revenue of $8.3 billion is projected for the third quarter, equivalent to a weaker sequential growth of 8 percent. A seasonal decline of 5 percent in the fourth quarter then will follow, dropping revenue for the period to $7.9 billion.

The strong showing of the second quarter this year is atypical. Even though the third quarter is the largest revenue period for the foundry sector, a new pattern of manufacturing has emerged, with initial product shipments from foundry suppliers for new design wins now moving from the third quarter to the second. This shift is related to end suppliers introducing next-generation wireless products, like cellphones and tablets, earlier in the year in order to capitalize on sales during a longer period—one lasting three quarters, instead of the usual two quarter time frame that traditionally starts at the beginning of the second half.

As a result of the shift, foundry suppliers must start to adjust technology development and factory expansion plans to mirror these changes. Shipments in the third quarter are now also a direct reflection of second-quarter performance.


Impending Q3 concerns on the horizon

The third quarter this year, however, is when manufacturers can begin to anticipate a reduction in orders, IHS iSuppli predicts. While demand for advanced technology will continue to drive overall revenue growth within the industry, the effects of external influences—such as a deteriorating global economy—will start being felt. The financial issues in Europe, for instance, will leave their mark in Asia as well as North America, and shaky consumer confidence throughout the world will result in an uncertain outlook for holiday spending. The end result would be a greater amount of inventory left throughout the industry.

Questions also abound on whether consumers will be willing during the next few months to pay for the latest technology rollouts. Unlike last year when holiday shoppers were enticed to purchase lower-cost electronics resulting from excess inventory, this year will be different, with consumers seeing a complete set of new electronics offerings focused on mobile communications, including next-generation tablets, feature-rich smartphones and Ultrabooks with the soon-to-be-launched Windows 8 operating system.

And while the potential exists for increased sales in the second half, any projected upticks are likely to be insufficient to drive major revenue increases for foundry players. This is because any innovative products introduced at this time will be too late to have any tangible effect on revenue for the remainder of the year.

At the current production pace, foundry manufacturing run rates will be negatively affected through the first quarter next year lasting until the first half of the second quarter, IHS iSuppli believes. The industry will begin to recover after that, with the third quarter next year anticipated to grow by a sequential 10 percent.

Nvidia #1 at TSMC Fab? Nvida has Priority for 28nm capacity

"TSMC has given priority to Nvidia for 28nm capacity, according to industry sources" (see below).


Nvidia has been unsatisfied with TSMC's 28nm process
Photo: Monica Chen, Digitimes file photo



Complaining publicly did not hurt - see March 26, 2012 blog Nvidia: TSMC 20nm Essentially Worthless 


Ron





TSMC gives priority to Nvidia for 28nm capacity

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20120509PD211.html?mod=2
Monica Chen, Taipei; Joseph Tsai, DIGITIMES [Wednesday 9 May 2012]

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has given priority to Nvidia for 28nm capacity, according to industry sources.
Since Nvidia has been unsatisfied with TSMC's 28nm process, while the company has also not refuted rumors that the company may cooperate with Samsung Electronics or Globalfoundries, TSMC, to sooth Nvidia, has put the GPU maker on its supply priority, allowing Nvidia to be able to release its 28nm GPUs on schedule in May and June.
The same situation has also happened previously with Qualcomm, which had said it would consider outsourcing orders to other wafer foundries, and successfully gained TSMC's promise for supply priority.
With both Qualcomm and Nvidia achieving supply priority from TSMC, players that are also waiting for TSMC's 28nm capacity, are expected to be affected.

Qualcomm and Nvidia 28 nm Wafers? Shortage...

Last quarter results from Qualcomm show again the impact of Moore's law breaking down. As detailed below, Qualcomm growth this quarter was limited by the supply of 28 nm wafers. Nvidia has been complaining about similar type of issues in the last few months.

It all is really tied to the bigger issues of increasing cost of developing and producing new process technologies. This fact is reducing the number of leading edge fabs.

Fabless companies to ensure their supply will need to share more of the development costs in order to gain higher priorities.



More information on foundries, fabs, and wafer supply is available at Forecasting Wafer Demand: Technology Migration, Bottlenecks (Link includes a chart of wafer demand by IC product type (i.e. DRAM, NAND, NOR, MPU, PLD, etc))

Ron Maltiel

TSMC 28nm Capacity Large Shortage

Nvidia has been concerned about their relationship with TSMC for awhile.

It seems that their yield for the 28 mm process is too low. There is a reasonable limit of how many additional wafers they should manufacture to cover shortfalls of good dies coming out of the fab.

Ron Maltiel



TSMC 28nm capacity in large shortage
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20120405PD218.html?mod=2
Monica Chen, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Friday 6 April 2012]

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's (TSMC) 28nm foundry capacity has been drastically short of demand from Qualcomm, AMD and Nvidia mainly, but the shortage is expected to relax at the end of the third quarter of 2012, according to industry sources. Qualcomm, in view of the shortage, has shifted some orders to United Microelectronics, but has been unable to meet its clients' demand for processors for smartphones and tablet PCs, the sources indicated. AMD launched the 28nm-based Radeon HD 7970 in the first quarter of 2012, but has actually shipped a relatively small volume of the GPU due to TSMC's short 28nm capacity, the sources noted. Nvidia launched only one 28nm-based GPU, GeForce GTX 680, in late March and has had to delay the launch of Kepler series GPU models due to the shortage, the sources said.

While yield rates of its 28nm process are slowly improving, TSMC is conservative about expanding 28nm foundry capacity in order to maintain gross margins, partly accounting for the capacity shortage, the sources said. In related news, TSMC will start construction of the 5th-phase expansion of Fab 14, its 12-inch fab located at the Southern Taiwan Science Park, on April 9. TSMC's total foundry capacity in 2012 is expected to increase by 10% from 2011

Moore's Law Slowwwing

Below is another example of the end of Moore's law.
See also earlier post.

Ron Maltiel

Feature dimension reduction slowdown
http://www.eetimes.com/discussion/other/4238315/Feature-dimension-reduction-slowdown
Handel Jones ,  3/20/2012 12:32 AM EDT

The semiconductor industry is facing the challenge that the two-year feature dimension cycle is over, and we are going into a highly unclear phase. The semiconductor industry is facing the challenge that the two-year feature dimension cycle is over, and we are going into a highly unclear phase.

1. The 32/28-nm wafer volume ramp-up from the foundry vendors is already on a three-year cycle. 45/40-nm was at 10 percent of revenues in Q4/2009, and 32/28-nm will be at 10 percent in Q4/2012.

2. The 22-nm FinFET high-volume ramp-up is already more than two years behind 32-nm. FinFET is a difficult technology. The activities of Intel have been outstanding, but many additional challenges must be overcome to support the multi-threshold voltages and multiple VDD levels that are needed for SoCs.

3. Next-generation 20-nm planar CMOS will have a range of additional tolerance control challenges compared to 28-nm. One likely impact is that cost per gate at 20-nm will be higher than at 28-nm.

Figure 1- Cost per gate.

With the potential for increased cost per gate, additional compaction will need to be done, which will lengthen design completion times. Cost per gate at 14-nm can also be higher than that at 28-nm.

4. After 20-nmm, what is next? The semiconductor industry is committing to 14-nm FinFETs. There will, however, be many manufacturing challenges, including step coverage, control of the FIN dimensions, use of double patterning on multiple layers, and even the need for quad patterning.

EUV will clearly not be ready in the 2014 to 2015 time frame, so 193-nm tools need to continue being used.

The recent scanner problems on the 28-nm line indicate that the limits of many technologies are being reached.

Another key problem with FinFETs is the ability to have multiple VDD levels on the die as well as multi-threshold voltages.

New libraries will need to be developed, IP transitioned to the FinFET structures, test chips run, and production volumes ramped up. At 14-nm, complex chips will cost $200 million to $500 million to design, and re-spins will cost $20 million to $50 million. The cost of failure will increase dramatically.

What's more, 14-nm FinFETs are not likely to be in high-volume production outside of Intel until 2016 to 2017. High-volume production will require lower power consumption and lower cost per gate than earlier generations of technologies.

After 14-nm, there will be a range of new challenges (EUV, 450-mm, carbon nanotubes, etc). The semiconductor industry must be realistic that the supply challenges are becoming more difficult, and there will be a lengthening of the time to migrate to smaller feature dimensions.

The supply chain, which includes tooling vendors, reticle vendors, foundry vendors, IC product design companies and electronics products vendors, needs to adjust.

Apple has already adjusted in that the only real enhancement to the iPad from a hardware perspective is higher-resolution display.

With the capex cost of 10,000 wafers per month at $1 billion, the cost penalties for the wafer vendors will be very high if the appropriate adjustments are not made.

Handel Jones is the founder and CEO of market research and consulting firm International Business Strategies Inc.