Showing posts with label Manufacturing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Manufacturing. Show all posts

Monday, June 13, 2016

Semiconductor Fabrication Growth for 2016 and 2017

Estimates by SEMI.org for 2016 and 2017 fab growth are in the article below. 

However Intel/ Micron's XPoint memory introduction in 2016 and developments of other type of 3D processing will impact fab lines capacity and the growth of semiconductor processing equipment.

Some key points from the article:
"Fab equipment spending- ....activity in the 3D NAND, 10nm Logic, and Foundry segments is expected to push equipment spending up to $36 billion in 2016, 1.5% over 2015, and to $40.7 billion in 2017, up 13%."

"leading-edge technologies...also in 3D technologies....more conversions of older fabs may take place, but also additional new fabs and lines may begin construction."


3D process demand for etch and deposition is already impacting Applied Materials; see their recent quarterly results - Orders for the second quarter were $3.45 billion, up 37% from ayear earlier


Ron
Insightful, timely, and accurate semiconductor consulting.
Semiconductor information and news at - http://www.maltiel-consulting.com/








By David Manners  10th June 2016

Nineteen new fabs and lines are forecasted to begin construction in 2016 and 2017, according to SEMI.
While semiconductor fab equipment spending is off to a slow start in 2016, it is expected to gain momentum through the end of the year. For 2016, 1.5% growth over 2015 is expected while 13% growth is forecast in 2017.
Fab equipment spending – including new, secondary, and in-house – was down 2% in 2015. However, activity in the 3D NAND, 10nm Logic, and Foundry segments is expected to push equipment spending up to $36 billion in 2016, 1.5% over 2015, and to $40.7 billion in 2017, up 13%.
Equipment will be purchased for existing fabs, lines that are being converted to leading-edge technology, as well as equipment going into new fabs and lines that began construction in the prior year.
Table 1 shows the regions where new fabs and lines are expected to be built in 2016 and 2017. These projects have a probability of 60% or higher, according to SEMI’s data. While some projects are already underway, others may be subject to delays or pushed into the following year.
Breaking down the 19 projects by wafer size, 12 of the fabs and lines are for 300mm (12-inch), four for 200mm, and three LED fabs (150mm, 100mm, and 50mm). Not including LEDs, the potential installed capacity of all these fabs and lines is estimated at almost 210,000 wafer starts per month (in 300mm equivalents) for fabs beginning construction in 2016 and 330,000 wafer starts per month (in 300mm equivalents) for fabs beginning construction in 2017.
In addition, the transition to leading-edge technologies (as we can see in planar technologies, but also in 3D technologies) creates a reduction in installed capacity within an existing fab. To compensate for this reduction, more conversions of older fabs may take place, but also additional new fabs and lines may begin construction.


Thursday, June 9, 2016

Process Challenges of 3D (Vertical Transistors)

The article below describes the drive toward 3D vertical transistors above the surface of the chip's die.

"3D NAND represents a major departure from today’s planar NAND. In 2D NAND, the fabrication process is dependent on advanced lithography. In 3D NAND, though, vendors are using trailing-edge 40nm to 20nm design rules. Lithography is still used, but it isn’t the most critical step. So for 3D NAND, the challenges shift from lithography to deposition and etch.”

However the new 3D processes are not easy to implement.

"3D NAND introduces a number of new and difficult process steps to the semiconductor industry...."it has introduced several fairly complex and new processes. Uniformity of these processes is critical. So, from my perspective, the challenges here are focused on variability control of several key processes.”


It will be interesting how well Intel and Micron XPoint (see SSD, 3D Vertical NAND, or 3D XPoint?) products will succeed against current 3D products (see November 2012 3D NAND flash is coming)

Ron
Insightful, timely, and accurate semiconductor consulting.
Semiconductor information and news at - http://www.maltiel-consulting.com/


How To Make 3D NAND

Foundries progress with complex combination of high-aspect ratio etch, metal deposition and string stacking.

Monday, April 25, 2016

Semiconductor Foundries Grew 4.4% while Global Sales Fell 2% in 2015

"The global semiconductor foundry market grew 4.4 percent in 2015 to reach $48.8 billion in value, according to market research company Gartner" (more below).

Semiconductor foundries were able to still grow their business in 2015 even though the overall demand for semiconductors shrunk. Of the foundries based in China, the largest foundry- SMIC had the largest increase in growth of 13.1%.




At the same time, the overall semiconductor market shrunk more than 2% in 2015 - See tables below.

Global Semiconductor Market Slumps in 2015, IHS Says



Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue Declined 2.3 Percent in 2015, According to Final Results by Gartner)






















Ron
Insightful, timely, and accurate semiconductor consulting.
Semiconductor information and news at - http://www.maltiel-consulting.com/



The global semiconductor foundry market grew 4.4 percent in 2015 to reach $48.8 billion in value, according to market research company Gartner Inc.
The percentage increase was low, coming after three years of double-digit percentage growth, but still was greater than the overall chip market which contracted by 2.3 percent in 2015, according to Gartner (see Chip market fell 2.3% in 2015, says Gartner ).
TSMC was market leader and is it has been for many years, and grew by 5.5 percent in 2015 driven by the success of its 20nm planar CMOS and 16nm FinFET manufacturing processes serving the needs of application processors and baseband modem chips.
Globalfoundries was able to outgrow UMC and swapped places with the Taiwanese foundry in second position, mainly due to the contribution of its IBM acqusitions. Samsung and SMIC grew faster than both of these companies but were unable to improve their rankings.
Gartner Foundry Replacement
Top 10 semiconductor foundries ranked by 2015 revenue in $millions. Source: Gartner.
Tower Semiconductor Ltd., which trades as TowerJazz, grew strongly in 2015 but remained in 7th spot. Fujitsu which was 10th in 2014 climbed to position 8 in 2015 while Vanguard and Hua  Semiconductor both dropped a single ranking position.
Price competition in advanced process technologies in 2015 was exceptionally strong, not only on the 28 nm node, as more foundry suppliers have started the production volume of 28 nm polySiON technology, but also on 65 nm and 40 nm. In contrast to the highly utilized 200 mm fabs from fingerprint ID chips and power management ICs, the low 300 mm fab utilization rates at some large foundries have triggered their willingness to run more 0.18-micron wafers in the 300 mm fabs.

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Semiconductor Revenue Growth, Ranking

Worldwide semiconductor revenue declined 1.9% in 2015 (see article below) while fab capacity increased 6% .  Samsung and Hynix benefited from the iPhone 6s demand. 


The ranking will change in 2016 due to recent trouble of Toshiba and Western Digital buying SanDisk . As in past ranking SanDisk revenue is not included, which make this table inaccurate (see April 2012 blog Top 25 2011 Semiconductor Sales Ranking )


Ron
Insightful, timely, and accurate semiconductor consulting.
Semiconductor information and news at - http://www.maltiel-consulting.com/




Gartner Says Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue Declined 1.9 Percent in 2015

Mixed Results in All Segments Drove Slow Growth
Worldwide semiconductor revenue totaled $333.7 billion in 2015, a 1.9 percent decrease from 2014 revenue of $340.3 billion, according to preliminary results by Gartner, Inc. The top 25 semiconductor vendors' combined revenue increased 0.2 percent, which was more than the overall industry's growth. The top 25 vendors accounted for 73.2 percent of total market revenue, up from 71.7 percent in 2014.
"Weakened demand for key electronic equipment, the continuing impact of the strong dollar in some regions and elevated inventory are to blame for the decline in the market in 2015," said Sergis Mushell, research director at Gartner. "In contrast to 2014, which saw revenue growth in all key device categories, 2015 saw mixed performance with optoelectronics, nonoptical sensors, analog and ASIC all reporting revenue growth while the rest of the market saw declines. Strongest growth was from the ASIC segment with growth of 2.4 percent due to demand from Apple, followed by analog and nonoptical sensors with 1.9 percent and 1.6 percent growth, respectively. Memory, the most volatile segment of the semiconductor industry, saw revenue decline by 0.6 percent, with DRAM experiencing negative growth and NAND flash experiencing growth."
Intel recorded a 1.2 percent revenue decline, due to falls in PC shipments (see Table 1). However, it retained the No. 1 market share position for the 24th year in a row with 15.5 percent market share. Samsung's memory business helped drive growth of 11.8 percent in 2015, and the company maintained the No. 2 spot with 11.6 percent market share.
Rank 2014
Rank 2015
Vendor
2014 Revenue
2015 Estimated Revenue
2014-2015 Growth (%)
2015 Market Share (%)
1
1
Intel
52,331
51,709
-1.2
15.5
2
2
Samsung Electronics
34,742
38,855
11.8
11.6
5
3
SK Hynix
15,997
16,494
3.1
4.9
3
4
Qualcomm
19,291
15,936
-17.4
4.8
4
5
Micron Technology
16,278
14,448
-11.2
4.3
6
6
Texas Instruments
11,538
11,533
0.0
3.5
7
7
Toshiba
10,665
9,622
-9.8
2.9
8
8
Broadcom
8,428
8,419
-0.1
2.5
9
9
STMicroelectronics
7,376
6,890
-6.6
2.1
12
10
Infineon Technologies
5,693
6,630
16.5
2.0


Others
157,992
153,182
-3.0
41.2


Total
340,331
333,718
-1.9
100
"The rise of the U.S. dollar against a number of different currencies significantly impacted the total semiconductor market in 2015," said Mr. Mushell. "End equipment demand was weakened in regions where the local currency depreciated against the dollar. For example in the eurozone, the sales prices of mobile phones or PCs increased in local currency, as many of the components are priced in U.S. dollars. This resulted in buyers either delaying purchases or buying cheaper substitute products, resulting in lower semiconductor sales. Additionally, Gartner's semiconductor revenue statistics are based on U.S. dollars; thus, sharp depreciation of the Japanese yen shrinks the revenue and the market share of the Japanese semiconductor vendors when measured in U.S. dollars."
The NAND market continued to deteriorate throughout the year. As a result, revenue grew only 4.1 percent in 2015, fueled by elevated supply bit growth that resulted in an aggressive pricing environment. The tumultuous NAND pricing environment rippled through most of the NAND solutions, particularly solid-state drives (SSDs), which continue to encroach on hard-disk drives (HDDs). The ensuing price war in SSDs further pressured the profitability of the NAND flash makers amid the biggest technology transition in flash history — 3D NAND. While 3D NAND commercialization was modest, it was limited to only one vendor — Samsung. Modest revenue gains have not stopped investment in NAND flash and 3D technology, with all vendors continuing to spend aggressively in the technology and most with new fabs.
After 32.0 percent revenue growth in 2014, the DRAM market hit a downturn in 2015. An oversupply in the commodity portion of the market caused by weak PC demand led to severe declines in average selling prices (ASPs), and revenue contracted by 2.4 percent compared with 2014. The oversupply and the extent of ASP declines could have been significantly worse if Micron Technologies' bit growth had performed in line with its South Korean rivals. Fortunately for the market, the company saw negative bit growth due to its transition to 20 nm, sparing the industry from an even more severe downturn.
Additional information is provided in the Gartner report "Market Share Analysis: Semiconductors, Worldwide, Preliminary 2015 Estimates."