China Cell Phone Growth in 2014-5

The growth of NAND flash consumption in China is a strong indication of cell phone, tablet, and other mobile products future growth in China. The prediction in the article below of

"The proportion of China's overall NAND Flash usage relative to the world's NAND Flash output... expected to hit 20.6 per cent in 2014, and 30 per cent or more in 2015."


This prediction will depend on a very high growth in mobile products


Ron
Insightful, timely, and accurate semiconductor consulting.
Semiconductor information and news at - http://www.maltiel-consulting.com/

Mobile device space lifts memory market in China

Posted: 18 Nov 2014  

China has consumed about 4.789 billion DRAM chips and 3.518 billion NAND Flash chips from the 2Gb category this year, accounting for a respective 19.2 per cent and 20.6 per cent of the world's total DRAM and NAND Flash output. This highlights the country's increasing business potential as a result of the appeal China generates in terms of consumer device markets such as PC, smartphone and tablets, indicated DRAMeXchange, a research arm of TrendForce.

China's PC DRAM consumption is presently at about 15 per cent. Benefiting from domestic demand, Lenovo has managed to raise the scale of its business operations over the years, and is acquiring other companies as a means to boost its presence among first tier manufacturers. While the company is still competing fiercely with HP for top position in the PC market, its overall PC shipments are ahead of all of its other competitors. For 2015, DRAMeXchange predicted that Lenovo's market share will arrive at about 17 per cent. As has been the case with the other markets, mobile DRAM is expected to gradually replace PC DRAM as the mainstream in China given the country's growing smartphone and tablet sales. Aside from ZTE and Huawei, which are doing relatively well overseas, most China-based smartphone brands are expected to place their focus on the domestic market. Based on TrendForce's 2014 market statistics, China alone accounts for 28 per cent of mobile DRAM's overall bit demand. The importance of China's economic development to the entire DRAM industry is expected to become more apparent next year as that proportion rises to over 40 per cent.

As the NAND Flash manufacturing processes are advancing to under 1ynm, many NAND Flash applications including smartphone and tablet-based eMMCs and notebook-based SSDs are showing improved growth in the market. Competition among global OEM manufacturers, meanwhile, is starting to become more intense, with brands other than Apple and Samsung starting to make their way into the country's lucrative market. The level of China's NAND Flash consumption has managed to grow considerably over recent years due to Lenovo's rise to prominence, the above-average growth shown by China's emerging brands, and the improving standards of China's hardware designs. By the end of 2014, DRAMeXchange projects that the NAND Flash market's total value in China will reach up to $6.3 billion. The proportion of China's overall NAND Flash usage relative to the world's NAND Flash output, on the other hand, is expected to hit 20.6 per cent in 2014, and 30 per cent or more in 2015.

China's efforts over the years to transform from a manufacturing-based to consumption-based economy has been largely successful. Given the consistent growth in its economy and the country's rising wage levels, many of the productions in China are bound to be outsourced to other emerging countries. The Chinese government's present goal is to improve the country's outlook by implementing strategic policies that are aimed at enhancing its industrial capabilities. One such policy involves increasing the imports of semiconductor components such as smartphone CPU, AP, DRAM and NAND Flash, the combined value of which exceeds the value of China's imports for oil. In the future, it would be interesting to see whether Unisplendour Corp. Ltd's (UNIS) efforts to integrate resources from Spreadtrum Communications, RDA and Intel will be successful.

Due to the relatively high proportion of CPU, DRAM and NAND Flash components imported by China, the government policies that are implemented with regard to these three product categories may prove critical to the country's industries. A few days ago, the Chinese government announced a policy worth nearly $20 billion that involves mastering the technologies at the upper streams of the country's semiconductor supply chain and applying these technologies to mid to lower streams. The main purpose behind this is to enable the country's supply chains to be more integrated and to allow momentum in China's domestic industries to persist.

Hynix DRAM (Wuxi) Production

Hynix DRAM production was mentioned in an announcement of introduction of the 64Gb (gigabit) multi-level cell (MLC) NAND FLASH using the 16-nanometer micro fabrication process technology.
“The equipment, not directly damaged by the fire, requires a lot of work before it can be used again in the production line,” said an industry official. “It will not be as easy to normalize the Wuxi plant as originally thought.”

Fab equipment has to be meticulously cleaned before it can be put back in production. You have to make sure running the equipment would not produce particles. In addition every piece of equipment impacted by the fire need to be recalibrated.

Hynix also mentioned:

"SK Hynix raised the production capacity of the Icheon DRAM plant by 30% after the fire in the Wuxi plant in China. Early next year the company is considering making additional investments to extend the Icheon plant."

I am not clear how they can raise production 30% very quickly. They can shrink product masks set, improve production process, or buy new equipment. Each one will take several months to implement.

 

Ron

Insightful, timely, and accurate semiconductor consulting.

Semiconductor information and news at - http://www.maltiel-consulting.com/

SK Hynix concentrates investment in the microfabrication process…in a bid to chase ‘two hares’ at a time

2013/11/21 By Lee Hyeong-soo

SK Hynix (CEO Park Seong-wook) announced on November 20 that it began to produce the 64Gb (gigabit) multi-level cell (MLC) NAND FLASH using the 16-nanometer microfabrication process technology. 

It also completed the development of the 128Gb (16GB) package. It is the largest single 16-nanometer 64Gb MLC NAND FLASH chip. SK Hynix is planning to begin mass production of this product early next year. 
In general, as the microfabrication process intensifies, the interference between memory cells takes place. SK Hynix overcame the inter-cell interference during the 16-nanometer microfabrication process by applying the air gap technology, which fills the space between circuits with air, not an insulating material. 

SK Hynix is planning to convert the DRAM microfabrication process from upper 20-nanometer to lower 20-nanometer. Its strategy is to increase the global market share while raising the DRAM production capacity at the same time through the microfabrication process conversion. It is also reinforcing its product portfolio by concentrating on development of the triple-level cell (TLC) and 3D NAND FLASH. 

“We became the first in the world to commercialize the 16-nanometer microfabrication process technology, and completed the development of the 128Gb MLC product,” said Kim Jin-woong, head of the SK Hynix Flash Tech Innovation Division. “We can secure powerful competiveness in the NAND FLASH market.” 

SK Hynix seems to be concentrating on microfabrication process conversion because it intends to keep growing stably rather than impractical technology conversion. The top management, including CEO Park Seong-wook, is confident that it will not be behind Samsung Electronics as far as the microfabrication process technology is concerned. 

The recent fire in the Wuxi plant in China greatly influenced next year’s business strategy. SK Hynix believes that it is unreasonable to seek rapid changes, such as production of 3D semiconductors, when one of its global production bases, i.e. the Wuxi plant, is unstable. 

SK Hynix raised the production capacity of the Icheon DRAM plant by 30% after the fire in the Wuxi plant in China. Early next year the company is considering making additional investments to extend the Icheon plant. The Wuxi plant was expected to be normalized sometime this month, but there is a possibility of delay. 

SK Hynix is focused on recovering the production capacity while concentrating on investing in the Icheon DRAM line for the time being. If the microfabrication process conversion is successful, it will be able to achieve 7~8%ish growth next year without any additional investment in equipment. As the DRAM price skyrocketed, the fire of the Wuxi plant did not cause much financial damage, but if it does not defend the market share to a certain extent, it may boomerang in the future. DRAM also looks attractive in terms of profits. As the short supply continues, the DRAM price is continuously rising. 

“The equipment, not directly damaged by the fire, requires a lot of work before it can be used again in the production line,” said an industry official. “It will not be as easy to normalize the Wuxi plant as originally thought.” 

Lee Hyeong-soo | goldlion2@etnews.com