Semiconductor Fabrication Growth for 2016 and 2017

Estimates by SEMI.org for 2016 and 2017 fab growth are in the article below. 

However Intel/ Micron's XPoint memory introduction in 2016 and developments of other type of 3D processing will impact fab lines capacity and the growth of semiconductor processing equipment.

Some key points from the article:

"Fab equipment spending- ....activity in the 3D NAND, 10nm Logic, and Foundry segments is expected to push equipment spending up to $36 billion in 2016, 1.5% over 2015, and to $40.7 billion in 2017, up 13%."

"leading-edge technologies...also in 3D technologies....more conversions of older fabs may take place, but also additional new fabs and lines may begin construction."

3D process demand for etch and deposition is already impacting Applied Materials; see their recent quarterly results - Orders for the second quarter were $3.45 billion, up 37% from ayear earlier

Ron
Insightful, timely, and accurate semiconductor consulting.
Semiconductor information and news at - http://www.maltiel-consulting.com/

SEMIforecasts 19 new fabs and lines for 2016/7

By David Manners  10th June 2016

Nineteen new fabs and lines are forecasted to begin construction in 2016 and 2017, according to SEMI.

While semiconductor fab equipment spending is off to a slow start in 2016, it is expected to gain momentum through the end of the year. For 2016, 1.5% growth over 2015 is expected while 13% growth is forecast in 2017.

Fab equipment spending – including new, secondary, and in-house – was down 2% in 2015. However, activity in the 3D NAND, 10nm Logic, and Foundry segments is expected to push equipment spending up to $36 billion in 2016, 1.5% over 2015, and to $40.7 billion in 2017, up 13%.

Equipment will be purchased for existing fabs, lines that are being converted to leading-edge technology, as well as equipment going into new fabs and lines that began construction in the prior year.

Table 1 shows the regions where new fabs and lines are expected to be built in 2016 and 2017. These projects have a probability of 60% or higher, according to SEMI’s data. While some projects are already underway, others may be subject to delays or pushed into the following year.

Breaking down the 19 projects by wafer size, 12 of the fabs and lines are for 300mm (12-inch), four for 200mm, and three LED fabs (150mm, 100mm, and 50mm). Not including LEDs, the potential installed capacity of all these fabs and lines is estimated at almost 210,000 wafer starts per month (in 300mm equivalents) for fabs beginning construction in 2016 and 330,000 wafer starts per month (in 300mm equivalents) for fabs beginning construction in 2017.

In addition, the transition to leading-edge technologies (as we can see in planar technologies, but also in 3D technologies) creates a reduction in installed capacity within an existing fab. To compensate for this reduction, more conversions of older fabs may take place, but also additional new fabs and lines may begin construction.