Learning Curve Leads to Shakeout in SSD Market
Septmber 1, 2008
Similar to many other new technologies I have observed since the first EEPROM, SSD will be slow to grow to large volume due to the learning required by suppliers and customers when new technologies are implemented. It will take a few years for SSD to evolve to a product ready for large volume markets. Some specific issues that will be needed to be resolved first are:
SSD is different from hard drive and it will take time to optimize SSD drive interaction with the system it will be used with.
1. Only after the differences between SSD and hard drive are fully understood (their interaction with the system they are used in, their reliability, etc), new products will be designed to take advantage of the inherent benefits of SSD.
3. Each major type of system that can use SSD (PC, Enterprise , Mobile, Media players) will have to go through these major learning cycles.
4. After the major stumbling blocks in each application types are ironed out, the SSD volume will take off.
All these factors are likely to slow the market penetration of SSD and are part of the reasons for the shakeout that is discussed below.