Thursday, January 10, 2013

Fabless Catching Up to IDM Sales


Fabless semiconductor companies continued to increase their shares relative to IDM sales in 2012 as the graph shows.


More about it from IC Insights is below.


Earlier reports from August 2012 Samsung,a Top IC Foundry in 2012 and Semiconductor Ranking: Foundries Soar, Japanese Crash


Ron
Insightful, timely, and accurate semiconductor consulting.
Semiconductor information and news at - http://www.maltiel-consulting.com/





Fabless IC Company Sales “Shine” While IDM IC Sales “Slump” in 2012
upcoming McClean Report 2013, IC Insights

Contrary to some opinions, the fabless/foundry business model shows no signs of "collapsing."
IC Insights’ 2013 edition of The McClean Report shows that the fabless IC suppliers grew by 6% in 2012, 10 points better than the 4% decline registered by the IDMs (i.e., companies with IC fabrication facilities) and eight points better than the 2% decline shown by the total IC market last year.

As shown in Figure 1, except for 2010, fabless company IC sales growth has outpaced IDM IC sales growth (or the decline was less severe) since 1999.


















Figure 1 Fabless vs. IDM Company Sales. Source: IC Insights

The year 2010 was the first and only time on record that IDM IC sales growth (34%) outpaced fabless IC company sales growth (29%). Since very few fabless IC suppliers participate in the memory market, they did not receive a boost from the surging DRAM and NAND flash memory markets in 2010, which grew 75% and 44%, respectively.

Another reason for relatively poor showing by the total IC fabless segment in 2010 was that some of the large fabless IC suppliers like MediaTek and ST-Ericsson, registered growth that was less than half the total 2010 IC industry average. However, the fabless IC suppliers once again grew faster than the total IC market beginning in 2011 by registering a 5% increase as compared to a 1% decline in sales for the IDM companies.

Figure 2 compares fabless-company IC sales to IDM-company IC sales since 1999. As shown, the 1999-2012 worldwide IC market displayed a modest 5% CAGR. In contrast, total IC sales from the fabless IC companies during this same timeframe increased at more than three times this rate and registered a very strong 16% CAGR. As a result of this trend, fabless IC company sales increased over 7x from 1999 to 2012 whereas total IDM IC sales were up less than 50% over this same timeperiod. Moreover, the IDM companies’ IC sales in 2012 were only 10% greater than they were 12 years earlier in 2000 and were less than they were five years ago in 2007.















Figure 2 Source: Fabless (Foundries) vs. IDM Sales. IC Insights

Given the big disparity in the 1999-2012 CAGRs between the fabless IC suppliers and the IDMs, it comes as little surprise that, except in 2010, fabless IC companies have been increasing their share of the worldwide IC market (Figure 3). As shown, in 1999, fabless IC company sales accounted for just over 7% of the total IC market. However, in 2012, fabless IC suppliers represented 27.1% of worldwide IC sales, a new record high.
Figure 3 Fabless sales as a precentage of WW IC sales. Source: IC Insights


IC Insights forecasts that in 2017, fabless IC companies will command at least one-third (33%) of the total IC market (especially if more large companies like IDT, LSI Logic, Agere, and AMD become fabless over the next five years). Over the long-term, IC Insights believes that fabless IC suppliers, and the IC foundries that serve them, will continue to become a stronger force in the total IC industry.

Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Apples' Cook in China (MediaTek Impact)

Apple is having hard time competing in emerging market due to MediaTek.


The New York Times article below expands about MediaTek rise.

"Despite having reported record sales of the iPhone 5, the U.S. technology giant’s presence on the mainland flagged in 2012; it was pushed out of the top five smartphone makers in that market during the third quarter, with just 8 percent of the market, according to the research firm Canalys.

As Coolpad, Huawei, Lenovo, Samsung and ZTE surged ahead of Apple, a major force behind their success was MediaTek, a Taiwanese chip maker...entered the smartphone business late, introducing its first chipset in 2011 inside a Lenovo phone. But within a year and a half, analysts say, MediaTek has taken 50 percent of China’s market for smartphone chips.

That success has come with the adoption of what MediaTek calls a “turnkey solution.” Rather than simply provide a chip, the company also offers instructions on how to build a phone, the software architecture to run it and dedicated consultants to advise phone makers through the production process"

Ron
Insightful, timely, and accurate semiconductor consulting.
Semiconductor information and news at - http://www.maltiel-consulting.com/




By LIN YANG, January 6, 2013

TAIPEI — In the China smartphone market, Apple has seen better days.

Despite having reported record sales of the iPhone 5, the U.S. technology giant’s presence on the mainland flagged in 2012; it was pushed out of the top five smartphone makers in that market during the third quarter, with just 8 percent of the market, according to the research firm Canalys.

As Coolpad, Huawei, Lenovo, Samsung and ZTE surged ahead of Apple, a major force behind their success was MediaTek, a Taiwanese chip maker whose products have drastically reduced the cost for manufacturers of getting new phones to market.

The company entered the smartphone business late, introducing its first chipset in 2011 inside a Lenovo phone. But within a year and a half, analysts say, MediaTek has taken 50 percent of China’s market for smartphone chips.

That success has come with the adoption of what MediaTek calls a “turnkey solution.” Rather than simply provide a chip, the company also offers instructions on how to build a phone, the software architecture to run it and dedicated consultants to advise phone makers through the production process. MediaTek’s chief financial officer, David Ku, describes this as a franchise model in which all the clients have to do is “turn on the burner.”

Peter Liao, an analyst at Nomura Securities who covers the industry, said MediaTek saved phone makers the often prohibitive cost of research and development.

“It typically takes a lot of money and time to develop a new handset model, but MediaTek comes in and provides a total solution,” Mr. Liao said.

The company has proved wildly popular among Chinese phone makers. Besides supplying Huawei, Lenovo and ZTE, MediaTek also supports lesser-known manufacturers, including those that make so-called bandit phones that imitate premium models from Apple, Samsung and HTC.

TCL Communication Technology Holdings, a Chinese phone maker that sells phones primarily in Europe and Latin America, uses MediaTek’s chips. Its chief operating officer, Wang Jiyang, said that when his company works with MediaTek, its only major design tasks are to make the software more user-friendly and to tailor the look and feel of the phone.
“In general, with MediaTek’s help, we’re able to achieve almost twice as fast time to market, compared to other solutions,” Mr. Wang said.

MediaTek was founded in 1997. It started out making chips for home entertainment electronics like DVD players and televisions before moving into components for CD and DVD-ROM devices. In 2004, it began making chips for small mobile phones.
MediaTek estimates that it will lead the Chinese market by selling 110 million smartphone chips in 2012, up from 10 million chips a year ago.
By comparison, Qualcomm, the global leader in smartphone chips, is expected to finish 2012 in second place in China with 82 million chips shipped, according to the research firm DigiTimes.
MediaTek has been powered by consumers like Zhang Ying, 31, who want to try the latest technology but not pay a premium for it. Mr. Zhang, a Shanghai resident, bought a knockoff HTC phone last year. “Every person has a price point,” he said. “At a time when some of my friends were buying Samsung or iPhone, I wanted to show that I can keep up with them. A lot of domestic phones are cheap and of fairly good quality.”
People who think like Mr. Zhang are dominating sales, especially among first-time smartphone buyers. In a September report, McKinsey, the global consulting firm, estimated that 69 percent of all smartphones sold in China would cost less than 1,500 renminbi, or about $240, by the second half of 2013.
And MediaTek is taking its business model to other emerging markets. The company’s products support features that are popular in developing countries, like noise-reducing speakers and slots for two SIM cards.
In India, local brands like Spice and Micromax are rolling out lower-priced smartphone models using MediaTek parts. In Brazil, phones by Motorola Mobility, as well as local brands like Gradiente and Multilaser, will also have MediaTek chips.
“The markets we target have 5.8 billion people, whereas the U.S. and Europe have less than one billion,” said Mr. Ku of MediaTek. “I need to aim at a global market, not just developed countries.”
MediaTek also released a chip last year for building basic smartphones that work in regions without mobile data networks. Users of these phones rely on Wi-Fi connections to download multimedia. These phones can cost as little as $50, or 312 renminbi.
Those chips now account for 40 percent of MediaTek’s smartphone chip sales, according to the company.
Mark Hung, an analyst at the research firm Gartner, calls the network-less chip one of the “fastest-growing smartphone segments,” as many consumers are looking to switch from their simple mobile phones to basic, low-cost smartphones.
“This is a fairly new phenomenon, and as you can expect, mostly in emerging markets, including China,” Mr. Hung said.
For now, Apple has signaled that it has no intention of competing on price. The iPhone 5, released in China on Dec. 14, cost 300 renminbi more than the two previous models, the iPhone 4S and 4, on their release days. More than two million units of the iPhone 5 were sold during its first weekend.
By contrast, Coolpad, Huawei, Lenovo, Samsung and ZTE have rolled out new phones with similar performance at a third of the iPhone 5’s price of 5,288 renminbi, and sometimes less.
“We believe that emerging countries should also be able to enjoy the use of information technology with the same computing power,” said Tsai Ming-kai, chief executive of MediaTek.
As the world’s largest market for smartphones, China is quickly becoming a bellwether for the progress of sales wars globally. The Chinese experience may show that any leading market position can be fickle, and new brands can appear seemingly out of nowhere to capture significant market shares.
Apple remains No. 2 in smartphone shipments worldwide after Samsung, but its position could be threatened as the competition expands to more consumers and more price points.
“Emerging economies are getting stronger,” Mr. Tsai said. “The industry dynamic is always evolving. Anything can happen.”

Monday, January 7, 2013

3D Flash Memory Marching Forward

3-D Flash starts to appear in the market. Hynix version is based on VSAT technology.


See more about VSAT at http://www.maltiel-consulting.com/3D_Charge_Trapping-CT_NAND_Flash.pdf .


The dramatic iincrease in flash memory cycling endurance (mentioned in IEDM 2012) is likely to extend the life of the basic flash NAND technology.


Ron
Insightful, timely, and accurate semiconductor consulting.
Semiconductor information and news at - http://www.maltiel-consulting.com/







Hynix to start sampling 3D flash memory chips

04 Jan 2013

South Korean memory semiconductor supplier SK Hynix said earlier this week that it would begin mass production and sampling of 3D flash memory chips that utilises vertical-stacked-array-transistor (VSAT) technology, according to a report by the Korea Times.

Flash chip, which is a type of non-volatile memory that can be erased and reprogrammed, is ideal for data-intensive devices that constantly connect to the Internet. It has a simple cell structure that allows for higher memory capacity, density and durability.
"As far as I know, all major semiconductor companies are investing more in the development of 3D flash memory chips. SK Hynix is trying hard to mass produce them as early as possible," said CTO Park Sung-wook. Samsung Electronics is reportedly planning to produce 3D flash memory chips in its plant in Xi'an, China upon completion of the facility.

Friday, January 4, 2013

TSMC and GlobalFoundries 3-D Transistors (FinFETs)

Foundries are trying to catch up with Intel 3D FinFET transistors at the 14nm process, while maintaining an older interconnection process.

"they’ll take a half step. They will replace planar transistors with a denser array of FinFETs, but they won’t advance the manufacturing process used to build the wiring that connects the devices on the “back end” layers of the chip. As a result, although there will be more transistors in any given area, a good number of them won’t be connected and therefore can’t be used. The chips won’t be much smaller than the 20-nm generation, which is going into production now. "

See more about Intel's 14nm Process and Manufacturing Roadmap and a Tutorial: Intel 22nm 3D Tri-Gate FinFETs Transistors 


Additional information about the foundries transition is GlobalFoundries Tips 10nm Process

Ron
http://www.maltiel-consulting.com/



Foundries Rush 3-D Transistors

Nearly two years after Intel, the world's leading foundries scramble to get FinFETs into the hands of chip designers

By Rachel Courtland / January 2013

The 3-D transistor is poised to go mainstream. After falling behind Intel, the world’s biggest foundries are all gearing up to produce these cutting edge switches. And to accelerate the process, some have opted to take an unusual step: marrying the new transistors with an older approach to building the wiring that ties them together on a chip.


The hope is that this hybrid strategy will help foundries make 3-D transistors, or FinFETs, available to most of the world’s semiconductor firms by 2014, a good year earlier than anticipated. That could help close the gap with Intel, which unveiled the first commercial 3-D transistor process in 2011 and likely aims to supply the technology, with few exceptions, only to itself. Intel plans to release the transistors in smartphone and tablet chips tailor-made to compete against the foundries’ customers. 


Chipmakers are switching to FinFETs because each time they have shrunk their ordinary, planar transistors, manufacturers have seen a smaller performance gain. FinFETs—which effectively turn the transistor’s current- carrying channel on its side to create a fin—carry more current and leak less of it, making for circuits that perform better and use less power. GlobalFoundries, Samsung, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), and United Microelectronics have all made it clear that they plan to pursue the technology. They aim to introduce FinFETs at the 14-nanometer-manufacturing-process node—a step, more or less, behind Intel’s 22-nm introduction. 


To get there, both GlobalFoundries and TSMC have revealed they’ll take a half step. They will replace planar transistors with a denser array of FinFETs, but they won’t advance the manufacturing process used to build the wiring that connects the devices on the “back end” layers of the chip. As a result, although there will be more transistors in any given area, a good number of them won’t be connected and therefore can’t be used. The chips won’t be much smaller than the 20-nm generation, which is going into production now. That means the foundries won’t be able to create more of them on a single wafer to reduce costs. Nonetheless, GlobalFoundries expects the chips it will produce could be as much as 55 percent faster or 40 percent less power hungry than the 20-nm generation. 


For GlobalFoundries, the advantage of this halfway approach is that it will let the company keep more than 7000 design rules that were developed for the 20-nm planar chip, while changing just 60 or so that are needed to describe the fin, says Subramani Kengeri, vice president of advanced technology architecture at GlobalFoundries. “First- generation FinFET is a huge challenge. There’s no question about it,” says Kengeri. “Adding more risks to that by adding other complexi ties that were not necessarily fin- related was not prudent.” All told, the hybrid approach should allow the company to accelerate production by a year.


Illustration: Emily CooperFINS ARE IN: Three-dimensional transistors, or FinFETs, control current between the source and drain more effectively by surrounding the transistor channel with the gate on three sides.
Click on the image for a larger view.TSMC, which calls its FinFET scheme a 16-nm process, says its chips are “similar” in size and density to other foundries’ 14-nm offerings. Later this year, both TSMC and GlobalFoundries hope to create small batches of test chips for customers and are targeting full production in 2014, which will put the companies’ releases more or less on the same schedule as that of Intel’s own 14-nm chips.


“I think this incremental strategy is probably a very sound, safe way of not changing too many things at the same time and developing something they can be sure can be production worthy,” says Chi-Ping Hsu, who heads up research and development for the Silicon Realization Group at Cadence, an electronic design automation firm based in San Jose, Calif.


FinFETs are “a huge challenge for the whole industry,” Hsu says. He estimates that his team at Cadence has already spent some 4000 man-years overhauling computer code for today’s generation of chips so that processor operation can be simu lated in a realistic time frame. FinFETs, which boast stronger electrical effects on their neighbors and have dimensions that can’t be adjusted, are an added challenge. Hsu reckons it will cost the foundries and their partners some US $6 billion to develop the manufacturing prowess and the computational tools needed to make 14-nm and 16-nm chips.


Whether the investment will pay off in the end is unclear, says Sam Tuan Wang, chief analyst for semiconductor foundries at Gartner. “People say if Intel can do it, I can do it. That’s not true,” he says. We may not have to wait long to find out.

Thursday, January 3, 2013

Flash Memory Growth & Sales Surpass DRAM


See in August 2012 Flash Memory Sales Surpass DRAM  , and DRAM Market Plateau/ Flash NAND Growing

While the NOR market size is not growing as fast as NAND market it is still big enough to make the combined flash market bigger than DRAM market.

More on NOR market in a previous comments Flash NOR Memory Revival and in my May 2007 article on Long Term Trends in the NOR and NAND Markets

Ron


http://www.maltiel-consulting.com/




Flash overtakes DRAM
David Manners,   Thursday 20 December 2012 10:09

The flash memory market will grow 2% to $30bn in 2012, overtaking the $28bn DRAM market for the first time, says IC Insights.

With the exception of 2010, the DRAM and flash memory markets have been growing closer in size to each other for several years but demand for flash used in portable media devices, coupled with two years of weaker demand and price erosion for commodity DRAM used in personal computers, will finally be enough to push total flash sales beyond those for DRAM this year, says IC Insights.

Among portable media devices, smartphone shipments are projected to finish the year up 55% to 750 million units and shipments of tablet computers are forecast to rise 80% to 117 million units.

Through 2017, the flash memory market is expected to widen its lead over DRAM. In fact, IC Insights forecasts the NAND flash memory market alone will be larger than the DRAM market beginning in 2013.

Among more than 30 product segments classified by WSTS, NAND flash is forecast to have the third-highest average annual growth rate through 2017, trailing only the market growth rates for tablet processors and cellphone application processors.
NAND flash sales are forecast to increase 14% annually from 2012-2017, growing to $53bn at the end of the forecast period while the DRAM market is forecast to grow 9% annually over this same time.

Thursday, December 13, 2012

Apple iPad 4 – A6X Tear-down

Chipwork's teardown of the new Apple iPad 4 reveals a major redesign of the graphic processor (GPU). The much larger area dedicated to the GPU and wider interface of the DRAM improves the display and touch screen performance of the iPad 4. It probably also helps prolong battery life.


" The A6 is 94mm2 while the A6X is 123mm2 – a full 30% larger.So where did that extra area go? Well, firstly, it did not go to the CPU core. The A6X uses the identical CPU to the A6. Same size, same layout. This is not surprising given that the prior CPU used custom layout techniques, and therefore it would be a huge amount of work to redesign so soon. Much of the extra area has gone to the GPU cores which are up from 3 to 4. More notable is that each of these GPU cores is much larger.On the A6X each GPU core is 8.7mm2 while the A6 GPU cores are only 5.4mm2. The overall area occupied by the A6X GPU cores is more than double that of the A6!

So we see that of the 29 mm2 of new area on the A6X, a full 18.6 mm2 is the result of the increased quantity of graphics processing. Impressive!

Additionally, if you look closely at the GPU cores (which our high magnification scopes allow us to do), we can see they are actually split into sub-cores themselves. Each GPU core is sub-divided into 9 sub-cores (2 sets of 4 identical sub-cores plus a central core). This could be done to allow for more efficient parallel processing, or to allow for a higher maximum clock rate. In either case, these GPUs should result in some blazing graphics on your iPad.

Other items of note:

It looks like the A6X has double the SDRAM interface width of the A6 (again likely to allow for greater graphics processing power).

Other than the CPU, it appears all the other digital cores have new layouts. This chip is not just a minor tweak from the A6, a lot of work has gone into this.

Apple has reduced the number of core PLLs needed from 9 on the A6 to 8 on the A6X. However they have moved them close to the middle of the chip which may allow for better control over clock skew across the chip.

Many of the analog and interface cores have been reused from the A6, however there are also some new interface blocks."

Additional information

Ron Maltiel   www.maltiel-consulting.com

Monday, December 3, 2012

3D Flash NAND Devices and Process

The article below discusses developments in 3D Flash NAND. Toshiba and Macronix have different approaches. See more details about Toshiba Next NAND- 3D with 15 Layers.


Applied material discusses processing issues and new equipment to address them.

"According to Applied Materials, building 3D NAND structures in like trying to dig a one-kilometer-deep, three-kilometer-long trench with walls exactly three meters apart, through interleaved rock strata."

Ron Maltiel
www.maltiel-consulting.com





3D NAND flash is coming

http://www.edn.com/electronics-blogs/practical-chip-design/4401542/3D-NAND-flash-is-coming

Brian Bailey - November 15, 2012

Flash memory has very quickly risen from being an obscure memory type to perhaps becoming the dominant memory type for many devices, including music players, cell phones, tablets and now increasingly servers and mainstream PCs. But flash memory does not scale quite as well as the more traditional DRAM that it is replacing. It is thought that DRAM can scale down to 1nm whereas we are already hitting some problems with the scaling of the floating gate in NAND flash. It is not thought that planar NAND can go below 10nm which is only a couple of processes steps away from where we are today.


There are several other types of memory being developed, including spin-torque MRAM and Resistive RAM (ReRAM) that may replace both RAM and flash in the future. Another exciting direction is 3D NAND structures. In some respects this is similar to FinFET development for traditional transistors that are finding their way into 20nm and 14nm processes.


Toshiba is one company pushing 3D NAND processes with its p-BiCS (pipe-shaped Bit Cost Scalable) technology. The thought is that rather than lay the cells flat on the surface, higher densities can be achieved by stacking them on top of each other. This is shown diagrammatically in the figure below. As you can see this is not the same as 3D ICs where multiple substrates are layered on top of each other and connected using through silicon vias (TSV), this is building cells on top of each other to create U shaped bit lines. They currently have 16 layers devices where the hole size is 50nm and Toshiba says that the process becomes cheaper than the traditional NAND processes when more than 15 layers are created. Samples are expected next year and volume shipments by 2015...
  Additional details